Mid Coast SA Surf Forecasts

1

Warning

Coastal Wind Warning 1

Katie Jackson

Katie Jackson 's Regional Outlook

Updated 22 Oct 2020 @ 1:57 PM (local)
info

The surf heights forecasted for Mid Coast SA

Please consider your local spots specific orientation to the coast and any local idiosyncrasies that may also effect the swell in relation to this regional forecast.

  • Swell analysis

    Short-Term Analysis (to Friday 23 Oct)

    The La Nina climate pattern will be driving another extensive heat trough and an associated surface low over SA this week. We see a large area of warm low pressure enter from WA and greatly expand over the interior of the continent. As the central low condenses over the north of SA Thursday, it drives an east to southeast wind regime across the SA coastline. This system will then migrate over Victoria Friday, leading to a SSE wind shift pushing strong on the backside of the system. Look for a rise of SE winds to deteriorate conditions along South Coast at the end of the week, while we also have some underlying SW groundswells pushing up wave heights with deepwater sets from a distant Indian Ocean source.

    A new incoming SW groundswell creeps in Wednesday but will generally remain inconsistent. Clean morning conditions on the MidCoast help the and minimal 1ft sets for a few additional surf options. The size will move up more 3ft+ surf for the South Coast but conditions will need to be monitored as we see the light onshore wind early, adding some texture as it develops into a stronger SE pattern through the afternoon.

    On Thursday, the development of a surface low over the north of the state will lead to a stronger SE wind regime through Friday. Again, expect texture conditions arising along the South Coast while we continue to see SW swell rising sets but getting crumbled over for shape. On Friday, forecasts indicate the full strength of SSE fetch will hit gale force on the underside of the low, possibly bringing in sustained 30knot windspeeds from the SSE. This will lead to flattening and grooming offshores on the Midcoast, but will knock off almost all incoming wave heights. Meanwhile a textured and bumpy direct SSE windswell generation will occur on the South Coast. This southerly windswell will be mostly sloppy and disorganised short period waves, crossed with a reboot of underlying SW groundswell sets. Wave heights will indeed rise but conditions will struggle with the onshores carrying over into the weekend as well.

    Long-Term Analysis (Sat 24 Oct and beyond)

     

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