South Coast WA Surf Forecasts

1

Warning

Coastal Wind Warning 1

Ben Macartney

Ben Macartney 's Regional Outlook

Updated 2 Jul 2020 @ 10:02 PM (local)
info

The surf heights forecasted for South Coast WA

Please consider your local spots specific orientation to the coast and any local idiosyncrasies that may also effect the swell in relation to this regional forecast.

  • Swell analysis

    Short-Term Analysis: 

    Friday dishes up a full day of good to excellent conditions across the region and marks the only notable day of favorable conditions over the coming week. Offshore ENE winds set in across the coast, grooming a still solid SW swell on a slow decline throughout the day. The offshore flow sets up in response to a large, mobile high pressure system moving swiftly over the WA interior during the day, precipitating a gradual shift to the NE during Friday afternoon, before turning northerly and freshening ahead of an active cold front and developing low approaching from the west during the day.

    That will see prefrontal winds building in strength on Saturday morning, opening up marginal potential for wind-affected surf in the 3 to 4ft+ range as NNE winds kick in at 20 to 30 knots, before gradually turning north and easing marginally during the afternoon. Although strong north to NNW winds are forecast to remain in force as the front nears the Southwest on Sunday morning, there’s a glimmer of hope for an abrupt drop-off in winds as the low nears the coastal fringe during the afternoon; potentially seeing lighter north to NE winds for a brief period, before they swing back to the west as the front moves through.

    At this point there’s still a fair degree of uncertainty on how this will play out, given diverging model guidance surrounding the movement of the developing low – so check back for an update on this on Friday. However Sunday plays out, there’s little doubt that Monday will mark the first in a series of poor to straight up unsurfable days across the region, lasting right through late next week. As the low slips southeast below the state on Monday it will extend a robust onshore westerly airflow of 20 to 30 knots or more across the coast – and that will also trigger a steep building trend in WSW swell throughout the day.

     

    Long-Term Analysis:

     

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