South Coast WA Surf Forecasts

1

Warning

Coastal Wind Warning 1

Katie Jackson

Katie Jackson 's Regional Outlook

Updated 27 Oct 2020 @ 4:05 PM (local)
info

The surf heights forecasted for South Coast WA

Please consider your local spots specific orientation to the coast and any local idiosyncrasies that may also effect the swell in relation to this regional forecast.

  • Swell analysis

    Short-Term Analysis (to Friday 27 Oct)
    The Indian Ocean weather charts are on a run now!! And wowsers, it is looking to be a big week ahead in terms of Indian Ocean storm and swell development. We have tracked a series of low pressure systems turning out from under South Africa this weekend that strengthened into a complex a large scale storm system running from the low to mid latitudes. This presents a large scale SW fetch extends across the entirety of the central Indian Ocean and and pumps out XL waves over our direct SW swell window for several days.

    The first significant and large run of SW groundswell energy is projected to stream over a large developed area of SW winds that expanded across the central Indian Ocean last Sunday and continues through Tuesday. This results in a stronger XL run of wave energy striking WA midweek. The storm underwent a complex cyclonic pattern involving multiple central lows, which have now combined into one massive central low just under southwest WA. This will fuel a large ongoing SW swell generation from Tuesday, building onwards to a peak Wednesday as the lows drift gradually towards the southeast Indian Ocean basin towards the Bight.

    Either way, we in for more large scale swell that will carry through the end of the week. Conditions will need to be monitored as we see strong onshore wind rotate SW Wednesday and then South. This continues generally poor conditions as winds add additional bumpy windswell on top of the existing large groundswell sets Wednesday. However, there is hope with possible swing of south winds easing later from SE Thursday and eventually strong OFFshores heading into Friday.

    The large SW groundswell filling in Tuesday is building in strong XL size through the afternoon along with an onshore WNW to WSW wind shift, meaning poor conditions over the initial swell arrival. By midweek, peaking swell will carry strong Wednesday as winds will be varying onshore another heat trough extending down from the north. Thursday can potentially be a transition day as the trough will tend winds from the S to SE but the swell will likely be disorganised still from the previous days of onshores. Give it a moment to settle then looking better for Thursday to Friday as swell gets groomed out by the offshores and organises. Rebuilding high pressure over the Indian Ocean will begin to occur around Thursday or Friday just as a heat trough extends south from northern WA. This brings in possible stronger offshore wind rebuilding through the second half of the swell event. Epic conditions could emerge if this lines up correctly with the turn of ESE windflow and holding strong SW swell only slowly easing from Friday towards the following weekend.

    Long-Term Analysis (Sat 26 Oct and beyond)

     

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