BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: May 22 - May 31, 2012

21 May 2013 0 Share

Coastalwatch’s Weekly Indo Surf Forecast Covering Bali, Java, Lombok and Sumbawa

Forecast Issued 21st May, 2013 by Ben Macartney

An active Southern Ocean storm track delivers a full week of mid to large SSW swell, followed by a large, long period SSW groundswell arriving across Indonesian coasts this weekend.

There's no shortage of SSW groundswell inbound across the Archipelago this week. Image: Randy Sparrow.

There's no shortage of SSW groundswell inbound across the Archipelago this week. Image: Randy Sparrow.

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday 23
SSW groundswell 3 – 5ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 15 knots

Thursday 24
SSW groundswell 5 – 6ft+ most exposed breaks grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 5 to 15 knots

Friday 25
SSW groundswell 4 – 5ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday 26
Long period SSW groundswell 6 - 8ft+ exposed breaks, increasing to 8 – 10ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday 27
Long period SSW groundswell 8 – 10ft exposed breaks, gradually easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ENE to ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Monday 28
SSW groundswell 5 – 8ft exposed breaks, inconsistent in the upper range. Gradually easing throughout the day. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots.

OVERVIEW

The first extra-large pulse of groundswell for the 2013 season looms across the Archipelago this weekend, following the development of a vast, synoptic scale low pressure system over the Southern Ocean this week. Prior to this swell’s arrival, there’s no shortage of mid to large SSW inbound throughout the remainder of the working week. A first pulse of mid period groundswell arrives throughout Wednesday, pushing wave heights up to a more substantial four feet or so across the most exposed reefs. The source is a complex low that developed over the Southern Ocean early last week. This system was a precursor to a far more intense low pressure system that set up deep beneath South Africa last Monday before powering out across the Southern Indian Ocean last Tuesday and Wednesday.

This deep low pressure system delivers a larger pulse of SSW groundswell to the region on Thursday, pushing wave heights up to a stronger five to eight feet across the most exposed breaks during the day before easing back into the four to six foot range by Friday. If all this doesn’t leave you satisfied then you’ll be pleased to hear an even bigger SSW groundswell will overlap with the tail end of Thursday/ Friday’s pulse; triggering a strong increase in wave heights across the entire region throughout Saturday.

The source of this weekend’s large SSW groundswell is a very large, complex area of low pressure that originated beneath Africa last Friday before rapidly intensifying last weekend – initially manifesting as two discrete low pressure centres before evolving into a vast low pressure complex occupying the south-central Indian Ocean on Monday and Tuesday.

Source: BOM. Two deep low pressure systems originating beneath Africa last weekend are the source of this weekends powerful SSW groundswell.

Source: BOM. Two deep low pressure systems originating beneath Africa last weekend are the source of this weekends powerful SSW groundswell.

The storm has generated a vast area of WSW gales across the southern Indian Ocean over the last 48 hours and will sustain the fetch as it gradually weakens throughout Wednesday. Although associated wind speeds are not overly strong (mostly 30 to 40 knots), the sheer dimensions of the fetch give rise to a vast wave field exhibiting maximum heights of 30 to 40 feet. The leading edge of a subsequent, long period SSW groundswell makes landfall across the region late on Friday ahead of the bulk of groundswell filling in throughout Saturday and Sunday.

This episode, along with the leading swells preceding its arrival, coincide with a very light wind regime; mostly calm to variable early mornings preceding light tradewinds ranging from five to ten knots.


LONGE RANGE

This weekend’s powerful SSW groundswell gradually eases to more manageable levels throughout Monday ahead of a new episode overlapping with the tail end on Tuesday 28 and Wednesday 29 May. This is generated by a new low pressure system forecast to remain slow moving beneath Madagascar on Wednesday and Thursday; aiming a more modest belt of SW gales at the Archipelago. This speculatively restores wave heights to a solid five to six foot plus over this time frame.

Beyond that the storm track is projected to weaken significantly late this week, leaving our swell window relatively inactive this weekend. An easing trend in SW swell should follow into the end of the month; speculatively culminating in a return to low scale SW swell in the one to three foot range over the first weekend of June.

Source: BOM. The vast storm system set up over the southern Indian Ocean on Monday and Tuesday.

Source: BOM. The vast storm system set up over the southern Indian Ocean on Monday and Tuesday.

Latest Wave Tracker model runs show a 30 to 40ft deepwater SW swell spreading north-east off the storm, bound for Indonesian coasts this weekend.

Latest Wave Tracker model runs show a 30 to 40ft deepwater SW swell spreading north-east off the storm, bound for Indonesian coasts this weekend.



Tags: indonesia , forecast , bali , ben , macartney , the perfect wave , perfect wave (create Alert from these tags)

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