Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 25 July - 5 August 2014

24 Jul 2014 0 Share

Indo Forecast
Presented by Garuda Indonesia

Surf Forecast updated 3.00pm, Thursday July 2014. By Chief Swell Forecaster Ben Macartney.

RECAP
A full week of SSW groundswell looms for the Archipelago; commencing with a first, mid to large pulse on Thursday and Friday. This is followed by two larger episodes; the first arriving on Sunday and Monday ahead of a second from Tuesday to Thursday.

One long SSW groundswell after another are stacking up across the Indian Ocean through late July and early August. Photo: Photo: Ray Wilcoxen/Kandui Resort.

One long SSW groundswell after another are stacking up across the Indian Ocean through late July and early August. Photo: Photo: Ray Wilcoxen/Kandui Resort.

SUMMARY

Friday 25
SSW groundswell 3 – 5ft exposed breaks, gradually easing during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday 26
SSW groundswell 3 - 4ft+ exposed breaks, easing later. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday 27
Leftover SSW groundswell 4 - 6ft sets exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Monday 28
New long period SSW groundswell 6 – 8ft exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 20 knots.

Tuesday 29
Reinforcing SSW groundswell maintains 6 – 8ft+ exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 20 knots.

Wednesday 30
SSW groundswell 6 – 8ft+ exposed breaks, easing later. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 20 knots.

OVERVIEW
The final week of July sees no shortage of mid to large groundswell on tap and it looks like there’s plenty more in store for first week of August.  The immediate outlook has a continuation of mid range SSW groundswell holding around the 4ft mark across exposed breaks like Uluwatu on Wednesday ahead of an uptick in energy on Thursday. This episode arises from a deep low pressure system that rapidly developed in the vicinity of the Kerguelen Islands last Friday before intensifying over the south-eastern Indian Ocean last weekend. The leading edge of this episode makes landfall out of the 200 to 210 degree band early on Friday night and should maintain peak size of 4 to 6ft throughout Thursday and early Friday before gradually tapering off from there.

The tail end of this episode should level off around 3 to 4ft or so on Saturday, marking an interim low point in wave heights preceding a renewed building trend commencing on Sunday. This impending episode is comprised of two, closely spaced SSW groundswells overlapping across the Archipelago during Sunday and Monday. This first episode is another mid to large pulse arriving out of the 215 degree band on Sunday; generating good sized 4 to 6ft surf across the exposed breaks throughout the day.

The swell source is an intense low pressure system that developed below South Africa on Friday before tracking out across the south-western Indian Ocean over the weekend and early this week. The low supported a broad area of WSW gales exhibiting speeds of 30 to 50 knots over this period and the fetch should weaken as the low approaches Australian longitudes over the next few days. However, the low is closely followed by a second, intense storm system currently intensifying along the same storm track, deep below Madagascar. This more compact low also supports a vigorous gale force WSW fetch exhibiting speeds of 40 to 50 knots around its core. The fetch goes to work on the pre-existing sea state prevailing in the wake of the first system, allowing for rapid wave growth to produce maximum significant wave height in the 30 to 40ft range over the next 24 hours.

Offshore Virtual Buoy: JAVA-10
9° 0' 0"S x 115° 0' 0"E

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali show the leading forerunners of a first long period SSW groundswell arriving on Saturday - initially at low levels ahead of the bulk of swell hitting on Sunday and Monday.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali show the leading forerunners of a first long period SSW groundswell arriving on Saturday - initially at low levels ahead of the bulk of swell hitting on Sunday and Monday.

LONG RANGE
As mentioned the end result is two back-to-back pulses of SSW groundswell; the first peaking on Sunday in the 5 to 6ft range ahead of a larger, longer period pulse topping out in the 6 to 8ft plus range on Monday. The tail end of this episode then overlaps with a similarly large long interval SSW groundswell, inbound from 215 degrees between Tuesday 29 and Thursday 31 July. This is linked to a new polar storm forecast to intensify as it tracks below the Kerguelen Islands from Wednesday to Friday; setting up a long belt of WSW gales in conjunction with a strong high pressure system setting up over the south-west Indian Ocean. Although projected wind speeds are not as strong, the stability and slow movement of the fetch are projected to give rise to a broader 30 to 35ft significant wave heights over the south-eastern Indian Ocean this weekend.

A long interval SSW groundswell arising from the low arrives mid to late next week; the leading edge showing throughout Tuesday afternoon ahead of the bulk of swell filling in at 6 to 8ft plus across exposed breaks during Wednesday and Thursday 31 July. These projections remain dependent on the storm’s behaviour so revisions to the size and timing to the long range forecast are a possibility in next week’s update.

Beyond that longer-term projections are now consistently capturing further development of this system as it enters Western Australian longitudes around Sunday 28/ Monday 29 July; indicating the low will give rise to a large to extra-large pulse of acutely directional S groundswell; speculatively peaking the 8ft+ plus range over the weekend of Saturday 2nd before rapidly easing again from Monday 3rd to Wednesday 5th August.

Latest model runs show stronger agreement regarding the development of an intense low pressure system verging on Western Australian longitudes early next week, resulting in a large S groundswell for Indonesia during the first days of August.

Latest model runs show stronger agreement regarding the development of an intense low pressure system verging on Western Australian longitudes early next week, resulting in a large S groundswell for Indonesia during the first days of August.


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