Swell Alert: Intense Polar Low Setting Up Swell

6 Dec 2016 0 Share

On the pump, potentially, Photo by Dan Wyer

On the pump, potentially, Photo by Dan Wyer

COASTALWATCH PLUS EXCLUSIVE | SWELL ALERT

Forecast by Western Australia Surf Forecaster Dan Wyer 

December can be a pretty mediocre month for surfing around the continent. Subdued Southern Ocean storm activity coupled with predominant onshore wind-regimes often equate to consecutive days of small, low-quality waves – and even across Western Australia’s ever-consistent Southwest Coast, epic days aren’t exactly a dime a dozen. Of course, such days can and do occur on a sporadic basis – and lo and behold this week sees one such day appearing in Margaret River’s forecast window.

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The Coastalwatch Wave Tracker shows long period energy within the 15-16second period range as bulk swell fills in overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning.

The Coastalwatch Wave Tracker shows long period energy within the 15-16second period range as bulk swell fills in overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning.

Track this swell with the Coastalwatch Wave Tracker

A strong rise in SW groundswell is expected to light up the west coast this week. This potential swell event comes courtesy of an intense polar low currently tracking ease of Heard Island. Current modeling indicates this well-aligned system to hold intensity over the next 24hrs as it tracks towards the SW coast. An initial steep rise in mid period SW swell should be seen into Wednesday before stronger energy in long period groundswell overlaps late in the afternoon, evening.

The low pressure system responsible for this swell event is expected to trigger a weak cold front on Wednesday bringing with it a moderate/fresh onshore, SW tending SSW'ly flow. Protected bays and points will be worth a look with improving conditions into the afternoon.

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Of more significance is what's install for Thursday. Reinforced SW groundswell is expected to hold strong into the morning. A favourably positioned high pressure system shifts across the south of the state generating a moderate offshore flow.

We should see some clean pumping surf across the coast with wave heights speculatively within the 8-10ft range with larger sets within the 12ft range at deep water reefs/bombies. We should see an array of options down south from some large clean surf for the experienced at exposed reefs/bombies to some smaller decent options at protected breaks. Further north, refracted energy in WSW groundswell should make for some decent 2-3ft surf across Perth/Mandurah beaches

Stay tuned to the local forecast here, for all the latest.

Photo by Dan Wyer

Photo by Dan Wyer

Tags: swell , swellalert , westernaustralia (create Alert from these tags)

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