Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 26 June - 8 July, 2019

25 Jun 2019 2 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Forecast Issued Tuesday, June 25, 2019

The depths of the southern hemisphere winter brings a relentless run of large SSW groundswell to Indonesia throughout the final week of June – and there’s a whole lot more brewing for the opening days of July. Over the last few days we’ve seen one of the larger, deeper winter lows of the season moving slowly across the southern Indian Ocean; supporting a vast area of SSW to SW winds exhibiting core sustained winds of 40 to 50 knots.  The early stages of this storm’s development spawned a smaller, leading SSW pulse that will start showing at lower levels on Thursday and Friday, ahead of a powerful, reinforcing push in large, long-period SSW groundswell this weekend.

You are guaranteed days of powerful SSW groundswell if you're heading to Indo this week. Photo: The Perfect Wave.

You are guaranteed days of powerful SSW groundswell if you're heading to Indo this week. Photo: The Perfect Wave.

Leading forerunners are projected to start arriving at low levels on Thursday, ahead of the bulk of groundswell arriving throughout Friday and the weekend, prospectively peaking in the 8 to 12ft range at the more exposed deepwater spots on Saturday, while generating still very large, but more accessible options at the more sheltered breaks tucked away inside the Bukit Peninsula.

An intense, winter scale low, depicted here on July 24, is the source of a major SSW swell-event arriving across Indonesia this weekend. Source: BOM.

An intense, winter scale low, depicted here on July 24, is the source of a major SSW swell-event arriving across Indonesia this weekend. Source: BOM.

Daily Summary

Wednesday 26
Mid-range SSW groundswell holds steady, ranging from 3 to 5ft along exposed breaks and wrapping at lower levels inside more sheltered breaks with size depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 10 knots.


Thursday 27
SSW groundswell slowly eases, before rebuilding in the afternoon. Up to 3 to 4ft+ across the most exposed breaks, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and dropping a foot or so during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.


Friday 28
New SSW groundswell builds in from 214 degrees further eases. Sets around 3 to 5ft+ along exposed breaks, building to 6 to 8ft+ in the afternoon. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.


Saturday 29
Heavy SSW groundswell peaks. Sets up to a clean 8 to 12ft across the most exposed breaks,. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.


Sunday 30
Easing SSW groundswell from 210 degrees. Up to a solid 6 to 8ft+ across exposed breaks, wrapping in at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and settling during the afternoon. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 20 knots.


Monday 1
Subsiding SSW groundswell gradually backs off throughout the day. Speculatively 4 to 6ft+ exposed breaks early, dropping to 3 to 5ft the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 20 knots.

Long Range
The longer term focus is likely to remain fixed on Indonesia’s south swell window into the first week of July. The development of a new high pressure system south of Madagascar over the next few days acts as a fulcrum for swell activity, by steering the storm track south-eastward over polar latitudes, below the far south-eastern Indian Ocean. A series of deep polar lows are forecast traverse below the high and push north-eastward along its lower eastern flank from Thursday through to the weekend.

This holds pretty firm prospects for a series of new, long-period SSW groundswells arriving across the archipelago into the opening days of July. The first of these looks relatively small; arriving throughout Wednesday 3rd, ahead of a larger, overlapping pulse moving in from 205 degrees on Thursday 4th and Friday 5th of July. At this early stage this holds pretty good potential for peak size in the 5 to 8ft range on Thursday, preceding a slow easing trend setting in from there.

Beyond that, model guidance variously hint at a temporary lull in major storm development; speculatively leading in a period of small to mid-sized SSW swell into the weekend of Saturday 6th and the week of Monday 8th July – but this is all likely to change as the week progresses.

Latest model runs are already picking up another deep low responsible for yet another, powerful SSW groundswell setting up for early July. Source: Wave Tracker.

Latest model runs are already picking up another deep low responsible for yet another, powerful SSW groundswell setting up for early July. Source: Wave Tracker.


Tags: Indo Surf Forecast , Ben Macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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