Dialling In, 10 - 12 February, 2012

24 Nov 2011 0 Share

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NSW | QLD | VIC | WA

NSW Weekend forecast

A short range SE fetch spanning the central Tasman sets up an easing trend ESE windswell across the region over the next few days. Wave heights continue to range between two and three feet across exposed coasts on Friday before easing back into the two foot range by Saturday.

By Sunday expect a combination of background E and SE swells maintaining one to two foot waves across exposed coasts. We’re still keeping an eye on Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, currently 185 nautical miles east of New Caledonia and tracking steadily south-east. The cyclone moves into our swell window over the next 48 hours or so, setting up a long range pulse of ENE swell that should begin to materialise at low levels during Sunday and hang in around two feet at across exposed coasts on Monday.

Beyond that, there’s still a degree of uncertainty regarding a low pressure system forming off the South Coast this weekend; latest computer modelled projections have downgraded the system, indicating it will briefly set up a moderate SSE fetch at the coast early next week – adding some small windswell into the mix on Tuesday and Wednesday, but confidence on this remains low for now.

Friday
ESE swell 2 – 3ft, mixing in with S swell to 2ft during the day. WIND: E 10 to 15 knots tending ENE 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
Easing ESE swell and S swell 2ft+. WIND: Divergence in wind modelling. Possibly light ENE 5 to 10 knots tending light NW to SW during the morning and NW to NE later.

Sunday
Short range ESE swell around 2ft,. Mixing in with inconsistent ENE groundswell around 1 - 2ft+ during the afternoon. WIND: Divergence in wind modelling. Possibly light SW early tending SE to NE 10 to 15 knots later.

Monday
SE and ENE swells around 2ft. WIND: Divergence in wind modelling. Possibly SSW to SSE 10 to 15 knots early tending light SE later.

QLD Weekend forecast

An easing trend in ESE swell partially offset by an increase in SSE windswell into the end of the week. This is linked to a moderate to strong SE fetch currently developing inside our short range swell window; sustained by a high pressure ridge extending across the coast interacting with a low pressure trough over the central Tasman Sea.

We’re still keeping an eye on Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, currently 185 nautical miles east of New Caledonia and tracking steadily south-east. The cyclone moves into our swell window over the next 48 hours or so, setting up a long range pulse of E swell that should begin to materialise at low levels during Saturday morning before building to a stronger two to three feet plus during the afternoon. This energy should hang in around this size on Sunday morning with a gradual easing trend setting during the afternoon.

Friday
SSE swell 2 – 3ft northern NSW exposed open coasts, grading to 1 – 2ft across south-eastern QLD. WIND: SSE 15 to 25 knots, easing to 10 to 20 knots during the day.

Saturday
E and SSE swells 1 – 2ft+ exposed coasts. E groundswell increasing to 2 – 3ft during the afternoon. WIND: NW to NE 5 to 15 knots tending SE to NE during the afternoon.

Sunday
E swell 2 – 3ft+ exposed coasts. WIND: Early light winds tending NE 5 to 15 knots.

VIC Weekend forecast

A continuation of peaky E windswell affects the region over the weekend; maintaining two to three foot waves across the Surf Coast. Conditions remain windblown by strong E winds associated with high pressure ridge lying across the Great Australian Bight interacting with a trough extending across the eastern interior, so wave quality will be affected.

Meanwhile the Southern Ocean storm track remains active but quite zonal with refracted SW groundswell forecast to begin to arrive through Sunday and Monday. Due to the vast distance over which this swell has to travel, wave heights are initially expected to be small and inconsistent early next week.

Friday
SW swell and ESE windswell. 2 to 3ft+ Surf Coast, 3 to 4ft+ exposed E facing open beaches. ESE winds 15 to 30 knots.

Saturday
E windswell. 2 to 3ft Surf Coast, 2 to 3ft open beaches. ESE winds 15 to 30 knots.

Sunday
E windswell backed up by SW groundswell. Inconsistent 1 to 3ft Surf Coast, inconsistent 2 to 4ft+ open beaches. WIND; SE 10 to 20 knots.

WA Weekend forecast

High pressure stabilising to our south interacts with a weak low pressure trough over the central coast to generate an offshore wind stream across the south-west of the state. This will lead to a run of groomed but small surfing conditions this weekend.

The swell consists of background small SW energy, up to 1-2ft across exposed South West coasts through Friday. Metro breaks will likely remain flat throughout the long range forecast as the summer conditions persist.

Expect more small scale SW swell this weekend; mostly 1-2ft waves and inconsistent in the upper range. Open areas will be the pick and look for mornings to show best conditions. In the afternoons, light seabreezes are possible to form but generally it will be the lack in swell that will limit surfing potential.


Sunday sees a south wind shift into the area and this is joined by a mild SW swell. Under the southerly flow, rising but inconsistent 2ft surf show for top areas. Better SW sets build in Monday and there is chance for additional 2-3ft+ waves to pick up along open areas as winds hold steady strength from the S to SE.

Summary;

Friday
SW swell, Southwest coast: 1ft, Perth: flat. WIND; E to SE wind 5-10kt, possible light sea breeze.

Saturday
Small scale SW swell Southwest coast: 1-2ft, Perth: 1ft. WIND; Light E to SE, possible sea breeze later.

Sunday
Small SW swell Southwest coast: 1-2ft+, Perth: flat. WIND; SSE 10-15knots.

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