Updated – East Coast Swell Alert:Large S Swell for NSW early to mid next week.

29 Oct 2013 0 Share

By Ben Macartney

-  Large increase in S swell anticipated by Monday morning, backed up by solid SSE swell during Tuesday  and Wednesday.

- The source is a deep East Coast Low developing over the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday and early next week.

If latest projections are anything to go on we can look forward to a big S swell event impacting the NSW coast early next week.

If latest projections are anything to go on we can look forward to a big S swell event impacting the NSW coast early next week.

If you read Tuesday’s Forecaster’s Blog regarding a large south swell event unfolding across the NSW coast early to mid next week, then you’ll be pleased to hear subsequent forecast modelling has remained fairly consistent over the last 48 hours. A deep low developing near Tasmania’s east coast on Sunday is projected to stall over the southern Tasman Sea from Monday to Wednesday, resulting in several days of large S and SSE swell across the Eastern Seaboard. The low’s negligible movement is associated with its position between two strong high pressure systems – one located over the Great Australian Bight and the other east of New Zealand.

Source: BOM. Latest model runs continue to depict a vast area of SSW gales setting up over the south-west Tasman Sea, resulting in a first, large S pulse on Monday.

Source: BOM. Latest model runs continue to depict a vast area of SSW gales setting up over the south-west Tasman Sea, resulting in a first, large S pulse on Monday.

Source: BOM. The low is forecast to remain slow moving over the southern Tasman on Tuesday, resulting in another strong SSE pulse on Wednesday.

Source: BOM. The low is forecast to remain slow moving over the southern Tasman on Tuesday, resulting in another strong SSE pulse on Wednesday.

This event continues to loom as a two stage affair; with an initial pulse on Monday gradually subsiding throughout Tuesday, preceding the arrival of a second pulse of SSE groundswell on Wednesday. The second pulse follows the sustained duration of a broad southerly fetch over the Tasman Sea, supported by the low’s slow movement over the region throughout Monday and Tuesday. This leans towards a first spike in S swell on Monday into the five to six foot plus range, dropping back to four to six feet across south facing beaches on Tuesday preceding a similar sized or slightly larger pulse of SSE groundswell arriving on Wednesday. Check Friday’s update for further details on local conditions.

The East Coast’s south swell window reopened this month as the Southern Ocean storm track shifted further east below the continent, delivering a series of mid range S and SSE swells to the NSW coast – culminating in a powerful S groundswell across Sydney and surrounds on Sunday – a long period episode that’s just beginning to light up Fiji.

A long interval SSW groundswell begins to make landfall across Fiji on Tuesday, with large surf anticipated on Wednesday.

A long interval SSW groundswell begins to make landfall across Fiji on Tuesday, with large surf anticipated on Wednesday.


Tags: east coast low , forecasters blog , ecl (create Alert from these tags)

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