Forecaster Blog: Deep Tasman Low brewing early in July

30 Jun 2016 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Issued Thursday, 30 June 2016

Giant north-easterly swells may be as rare as hen’s teeth across the East Coast, but thankfully, south swells are not. Going on long-range computer modelled projections, we can look forward to the evolution of a deep hybrid low over the southern Tasman Sea next week. The evolution of the low follows the passage of an upper trough across the eastern states early next week, contributing to the formation of a surface low somewhere off the southern NSW coast on Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning.

At the time of writing, the key, GFS and EC models are in fair agreement on the particulars; indicating the low will intensify just off the Far South Coast in the vicinity of Gabo Island/ Eden on Wednesday.

WATCH THIS SWELL ON THE COASTALWATCH WAVE TRACKER

Winter ain't done yet. Long range charts point to another large S/SE swell event unfolding across the East Coast late next week. Photo: Penny Kempe.

Winter ain't done yet. Long range charts point to another large S/SE swell event unfolding across the East Coast late next week. Photo: Penny Kempe.

If these projections hold true, we can look forward to a steep rising S swell setting in across the region; possibly commencing as early as Wednesday, but otherwise substantially kicking in by Thursday morning. While it’s still a little early to be calling specifics, it points to a stormy peak in S swell in the vicinity of 6 to 8ft across Sydney, the South Coast and Newcastle regions later Thursday, and early Friday across northern NSW and southern Queensland . There are also good indications these initial effects will coincide with strong to gale force SW/SSW winds, fuelled by the low as it consolidates offshore.

SEE ALSO: Weekend Surf Forecast 1 - 3 July 2016

With any luck, Thursday’s speculative peak in size will be followed by a transition in swell direction from SSE to SE as the swell abates into Friday and the weekend of Saturday 9 July. For now, latest GFS projections are very encouraging, indicating the low will continue to support a near gale force SSE/SE fetch as it rotates slowly across the southern Tasman Sea towards New Zealand throughout Friday and Saturday. While this would provide another glut of powerful swell for East Coast surfers, this scenario also implies southerly quarter winds will persist on Friday 8 and Saturday 9 before falling away to light and variable by Sunday 10 July – so opportunities for clean conditions may prove a little scarce compared to most of June’s episodes.

*Again, it’s worth reiterating that at this early point in time there’s still plenty of scope for changes to how this will play out, so stay tuned for updates over the coming days.

Long range GFS modelling picks up the early stages of the low's development late next week, depicting an extensive fetch wrapping around it's western and southern quadrants.

Long range GFS modelling picks up the early stages of the low's development late next week, depicting an extensive fetch wrapping around it's western and southern quadrants.

Tags: forecaster , blog , east , coast , low , swell , forecast , ben , macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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