WEEKEND SURF FORECAST: November 9 - 11, 2012
Dialling In, Thursday, 8 November 2012
No matter where you are located on this vast coastline of ours, there will be waves this weekend. The East Coast, particularly south-east Queensland and northern NSW, receive the first, early season E groundswell – arising from a deep tropical depression located south of Fiji. Even the southern half of the NSW coast should see a smaller version of this E swell mixing in with shorter range S swell on Sunday.
Victoria sees a full weekend of mid range SW swell producing good conditions across all coasts. A shorter period SW on Saturday is reinforced by a longer period groundswell on Sunday. Winds won’t be ideal on Saturday, but they’re set to swing NE by Sunday, making for good conditions across the exposed beaches.
Even the West Coast receives a solid round of mid period SW groundswell throughout the weekend; generating solid waves in the four to six foot plus range Down South – albeit adversely affected by moderate to strong onshore SSW winds.
Just as this week’s extended run of NE windswell fades away on Saturday, we have two new swells set to fill in during the day. The first is a minor increase in S windswell, generated in the wake of a strong southerly change extending up the southern half of the NSW coast on Friday evening. This should produce good sized, two to three foot waves across south facing beaches under moderate southerly winds lasting throughout the day. The second swell is an underlying pulse of E groundswell, generated by an early season tropical depression located south-east of Fiji:
Although the vast bulk of the resulting E swell is absorbed by south-eastern Queensland and northern NSW, we should see some small lines trickling in during Saturday afternoon, pushing wave heights up to one to two feet across open coasts. The bulk of this pulse should kick in across Sydney and the South Coast early on Sunday, so hit up the most exposed open beaches for some good quality, albeit inconsistent two to three foot waves.
NE windswell up to 2 – 3ft max exposed open beaches. Grading to 1 - 2ft elsewhere depending on exposure. Fading during the day. WIND: Early light and variable tending NE 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon.
New S windswell 2 - 3ft south facing beaches, mixing in with ENE swell at 1 – 2ft exposed open beaches. WIND: Early S 10 to 20 knots tending SSE 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Sunday: SSE swell up to 2 – 3ft+ south facing coasts, mixing in with long range ENE groundswell at 2 – 3ft exposed open beaches, WIND: Early SSW 10 to 15 knots tending S to SE during the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
Well, what a nice way to start the season. As I write, a monster of a tropical storm located deep the in south-west Pacific is a gale to storm force ESE fetch our way, and it will sustain these winds overnight before the low slips inside the North Island’s swell shadow on Friday. The resulting pulse of ESE groundswell begins to kick in throughout Saturday, triggering a notable increase from two to three feet early to a stronger three to five feet into the afternoon, and wave heights should hang in at similar levels throughout Sunday. Let’s hope its an indication of things to come.
E swell 2ft exposed open coasts, grading to 1 – 2ft inside the Points and Bays. WIND: Early NNW tending NNE 10 to 15 knots.
ESE groundswell increasing from 2 – 3ft early towards 3 - 5ft most exposed open coasts, grading to 2 – 4ft inside the Points and Bays. WIND: Early light WSW tending SSE 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
ESE swell up to 3 – 4ft+ most exposed coasts, grading to 2 – 3ft elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending SSE 15 to 25 knots during the day.
A new round of long range WSW groundswell overlaps with outgoing SW swell this weekend. The swell source is a deep extratropical low that steadily intensifying over the southern Indian Ocean last weekend, setting up a vast area of WSW gales across the Southern Ocean on Sunday and Monday. The resulting, long interval WSW groundswell arrives over the weekend, but the distance travelled by the swell will ensure it’s not overly large. Never the less, this should reach a peak of four to six feet across exposed beaches on Saturday, grading a foot smaller by Sunday.
Long peak intervals of 16 to 18 seconds should see ample refraction of the swell into the Surf Coast; producing solid three to four foot surf across the region on Sunday, and it should hang in at solid levels throughout Monday.
SSW swell 3 - 5ft exposed beaches, grading to 2 – 3ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light WNW shifting W to WSW 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
New WSW groundswell 3 – 4ft early, building to 4 - 6ft exposed beaches, grading to 3 – 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light W to SW tending light SSE later.
SW swell 4 – 5ft across exposed beaches. 3 - 4ft along the Surf Coast. WIND: NE 5 – 10 knots tending ENE 10 to 15 knots during the day.
An active storm track affecting the south-eastern Indian Ocean sets up a constant run of large SW swell across the West Coast this weekend. The steadily builds in size throughout Saturday before peaking overnight/ Sunday morning before gradually subsiding again during Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately winds won’t be ideal. A strong cold front crossing the coast early on Saturday sees winds increasing in strength out of the SW during the day in the wake of a cold front, and these winds will persist on Sunday, so head for the Bays for a smaller cleaner wave.
SW groundswell, gradually decreasing
Southwest Coast: 6ft+ sets easing 4 – 6ft
Perth: 2ft sets inconsistent
WIND: Variable light winds early, tending to sea breezes.
SW swell reinforcement kicks in late, southwest winds pick up
Southwest Coast: 4 – 5ft, rising 6ft sets
Perth: 2ft, occasional plus
WIND: SSW 5 – 15 knots early tending SW and rising to 10 – 20 knots
SW swell holds up early
Southwest Coast: 4 – 6ft
WIND: SW wind to 10 - 20 knots, easing S 5 – 15 knots
Bring on autumn.
There's more late summer goodness in the forecast this weekend.
There's a wave with your name on it this weekend.
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