Weekend Surf Forecast 25 - 27 November, 2016

24 Nov 2016 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST

Forecast issued Thursday, 24 November 2016

The last weekend of November brings no shortage of swell to coastal fringes, with rideable surf expected across just about every stretch of surfable Australian coastline. The only downside common to all regions is predominant onshore winds – by and large typical of late November – but annoying none the less. Starting with southern Queensland, we see the first E tradewind swell of the season on the way out; fading into the 2ft range across the region under a developing N to NE wind-regime.

The outlook for the NSW coast is notably better. The arrival of two back-to-back SSE and S groundswells are set to produce a string of solid-surf days – but only Friday morning will offer up some real quality while winds blow light offshore. Further south, Victoria also sees a sustained run of large SW swell lending the focus to the Torquay region, with W to SW winds and solid 3 to 4ft waves on offer on both days. Although South Australian coasts also benefit from the same swell, light onshore winds will keep wave-quality relatively low all weekend.

Finally, across the West Coast, there’s great conditions on offer both on Friday and Saturday. Early offshore winds greet solid swell in the 3 to 5ft range – probably making for the best conditions you’re likely to find around the place this weekend.

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The last weekend of November sees swell inbound from all directions. Photo: CW user Penny Kempe.

The last weekend of November sees swell inbound from all directions. Photo: CW user Penny Kempe.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
The prospect of moderate onshore, easterly quarter winds doesn’t exactly make one feel warm and fuzzy inside – but at least there’s swell – and plenty of it across the region this weekend. Friday morning is easily shaping up as the highlight over the next few days; presenting a definitive window of opportunity for some large, clean mid-period SSE swell groomed by light WNW winds.  By Saturday we see an inland surface trough extending to the mid-NSW coast interacting with a high pressure ridge; initiating light to moderate easterly winds across the region that are set to persist all weekend.

It looks like Saturday morning will offer up the best of conditions as the onshore flow remains light at 5 to 10 knots – probably even light and variable at times – preceding freshening ENE winds developing throughout the afternoon. Sunday sees moderate onshores persisting; the only change being a shift in wind-vectors to the ESE. 

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Friday
Solid and clean early. Mid period SSE swell. Sets to 4 – 5ft south facing breaks, grading smaller elsewhere and easing during the day. WIND: WNW 5 to 15 knots tending ESE 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
Best early under light winds, preceding moderate onshores setting in during the day. SSE swell. Around 3 – 4ft south facing breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller across open breaks with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light ENE, freshening to 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Sunday
Choppy conditions as reinforcing S swell fills in. Around 3 - 4ft south facing beaches, grading to 2 – 3ft elsewhere. WIND: Early ESE 10 to 15 knots, tending ENE later.

Early Friday sees some of the better late-spring conditions you're likely to see across the NSW coast. Photo: CW user Coogeephoto.

Early Friday sees some of the better late-spring conditions you're likely to see across the NSW coast. Photo: CW user Coogeephoto.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
This week’s season-opening ENE swell is set to fade away to far more mundane, 2ft levels by the weekend, so it’s well worth making the most of the swell while it lasts. Of course, if you’re reading this because you only have the opportunity to surf on the weekend, then I’d say head south of the border. The onset of a N to NE wind-regime coincides with the arrival of a robust pulse of mid-period S swell – probably offering up solid 3 to 4ft surf across those far northern NSW breaks pulling in the swell – and this will invariably lend the focus to northern corners offering some shelter from the prevailing wind. Although the swell eases a notch by Sunday it will still be plenty good, with lighter inshore NNW winds presenting scope for better quality surf before wind shift back to the NNE mid morning.

SEE ALSO: Snapper Rocks Rises, This Week’s Swell Sessions

Friday
Small and fun. Easing ENE tradewind swell. Sets to 2 – 3ft exposed QLD breaks, mixing with new S swell at similar . 2 – 4ft northern NSW south facing breaks, mixing with grading a foot or so smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: Light and variable to ESE to ENE inshore early, tending NE 10 to 15 knots later.

Saturday
A drive south of the border may be in order. Mix of leftover E tradewind swell and new, mid period S swell. Around 2ft exposed QLD breaks, grading to 3 – 4ft across northern NSW coasts. Smaller inside the points and bays. WIND: Early light inshore NNE tending NE 10 to 20 knots later.

Sunday
Picking up during the afternoon. Residual E swell around 1 - 2ft exposed QLD breaks, grading to 2 – 3ft across northern NSW coasts. Smaller inside the points and bays.. WIND: Early light and variable tending E 5 to 15 knots later.

A solid round of ENE swell wanes as a new S swell arrives just in time for the weekend. Photo: CW user Dkimber

A solid round of ENE swell wanes as a new S swell arrives just in time for the weekend. Photo: CW user Dkimber

Victoria
Onshore winds take the shine off an otherwise solid weekend surf across Victorian coasts. The onset of a steady building trend in SW swell throughout Friday culminates in a two full days of large surf; mostly hovering around the 6ft mark across exposed beaches, while offering up better 3 to 4ft conditions across the Surf Coast. The good news is winds are likely to be lighter westerly inshore across the Torquay region – both on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Otherwise, you’ll be contending with moderate south-westerlies, so it’s worth making the most of the early clean conditions while they last.

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Friday
Good across exposed beaches early, deteriorating later. New SW swell builds in. Around 3 – 4ft+ exposed coasts early, picking up towards 4 – 5ft during the day. Around 1 - 2ft across the Surf Coast, up to 2 – 3ft later. WIND: Early W inshore tending SW 15 to 25 knots.

Saturday
Solid and semi-clean across the Surf Coast early, deteriorating during the day. New SW groundswell. Around 4 – 6ft exposed coasts early, rising to 5 – 6ft+ during the day. Grading to 3 - 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light W inshore tending SW 10 to 20 knots.

Sunday
Semi-clean early, otherwise onshore and junky. Mid period SW swell. Set to 4 – 5ft exposed breaks, easing later. Grading to 2 – 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light W to SW tending SSW 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

The Surf Coast holds the best surfing options across Victoria this weekend. Photo: Judy Scanlon.

The Surf Coast holds the best surfing options across Victoria this weekend. Photo: Judy Scanlon.

Western Australia
A consistent run of long period SW groundswell delivers a string of days featuring powerful, mid-range surf across exposed Southwest breaks. And guess what? Winds are going to be offshore. Not the whole time, of course, but it’s clear there are some pretty wide-open windows for clean waves in store across the Southwest. Friday morning sees straight offshore winds making for excellent conditions ahead of a moderate SSW change – and it looks like winds will begin to swing back towards the SE into the late afternoon and evening. On Saturday we have lighter ENE winds tending light and variable during the day, before eventually going onshore later. It’s worth making the most of these windows, with more typical, strong southerly quarter winds set to make a return on Sunday.

SEE ALSO: Tom Carroll On Seatbelts & Shark Attacks

Friday.
Long period WSW overlap's under continued favourable winds. Southwest coast: 3-5ft, larger inco sets into the day. Perth/Mandurah: rising, 1-2ft. East winds 15-20kts tending variable before freshening 10-15kts SSW.

Saturday
Slight ease in WSW swell under favourable morning winds. Southwest coast: 3-5ft. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft. ENE winds 10-15kt tending variable before freshening 10-15kts SSW.

Sunday
Overlapping long period SW swell under light offshore winds. Southwest coast: 3-4ft, rising inconsistent plus sets later. Perth/Mandurah: 1-2ft. SE winds 15-20kts tending SSE'ly then SSW to 20kts.

The Southwest lights up under solid swell and light offshore winds on Friday and Saturday. Photo: CW user Jack O'Grady

The Southwest lights up under solid swell and light offshore winds on Friday and Saturday. Photo: CW user Jack O'Grady

South Australia
A new, long-range SSW groundswell kicks in just in time for the weekend; pushing surf-heights up to solid 3 to 4ft levels across the South Coast both on Saturday and Sunday. Friday won’t be bad either, with a leading pulse in small, mid period SW swell pushing up some 2 to 3ft sets across the more exposed south beaches. However, underpinning the run of swell is a less than ideal local wind-forecast; characterised by light to moderate onshore, southerly quarter winds. Although the onshore flow will keep conditions fairly junky for the most part, they should be light enough to ensure conditions remains rideable on all three days, so it’s well worth setting some time aside regardless.

Friday
Improving during the afternoon. SW swell. 2 - 3ft South Coast beaches. Grading flat - 0.5ft across the Mid Coast. WIND: S 10 to 15 knots, easing and tending lighter ENE during the afternoon.

Saturday
New SSW groundswell peaks through the day. Solid sets ranging from 3 - 4ft+ South Coast breaks. Grading to 1ft across the Mid Coast. WIND: SSE to SSW 5 to 15 knots.

Sunday
Solid and wind-effected SSW swell. Textured sets to 3 - 4ft exposed South Coast beaches. Wrapping around 1ft across the Mid Coast. WIND: SE to SSE 5 to 15 knots.

Light onshore winds will keep a lid on the appeal of a new SSW swell this weekend. Photo: CW user Kor.

Light onshore winds will keep a lid on the appeal of a new SSW swell this weekend. Photo: CW user Kor.

Tags: Ben , Macartney , Weekend , Forecast , topnews (create Alert from these tags)

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