Weekend Surf Forecast 17 - 19 November 2017

16 Nov 2017 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST

Forecast issued Thursday, 16 November 2017

Around most of the country, surfing conditions for this weekend are looking more like a warm-up for what’s in store over the course of next week. As per the latest Forecaster Blog, there’s no better case in point than the Eastern Seaboard.

A relatively modest upswing in NE and ESE windswells on Saturday and Sunday belie the arrival of a long-range ESE groundswell early next week; showing most size across southern Queensland coasts while still delivering powerful surf to Sydney and locations south. While Victoria and South Australia won’t see any such dramatic transformations in conditions, a full weekend of small-scale SW swell will favour the most exposed, south-west facing breaks – particularly as a new long-period pulse arrives under light NE winds on Sunday.

Over west, a relatively tame round of SW swell sees semi-clean 3 to 5ft conditions across the Southwest Coast on Saturday, easing again throughout Sunday. However, this is a lead-in to a much larger building trend in SW groundswell throughout Monday and Tuesday; pushing surf up into the 6 to 8ft range under relatively light winds. 

Small waves do not preclude big fun. Photo: Uploaded to CW by AaronP.

Small waves do not preclude big fun. Photo: Uploaded to CW by AaronP.

Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
A slow build in localised NE windswell is already underway across the region and it’s set to reach consistent 2 to 3ft plus levels across open breaks on Friday and Saturday. The short fetch-length driving this episode translates into a corresponding, short wave-period; topping out around 7 seconds on Saturday. On the upside, that will mean peaky surf, well suited to the majority of exposed open beaches all day. On the downside, the surf is likely to be lacking punch – and the associated, strong onshore NE airflow won’t exactly be making for pristine conditions. As discussed in the latest Forecaster Blog, this weekend’s NE windswell is closely followed by a more powerful, longer range E groundswell early to mid next week.

Friday
Short range NE windswell. Junky, disorganised 1 - 3ft exposed open beaches, building towards 2 – 3ft+ during the afternoon/ evening. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early NNE 10 to 20 knots tending NE 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
Lumpy, onshore NE windswell ranging from 2 - 4ft exposed open breaks, grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure and easing during the afternoon. WIND: NE 20 to 25 knots, tending ENE and easing to 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.

Sunday
Junky ENE windswell. Ranging from 2 - 3ft exposed open breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: E 10 to 15 knots, easing during the afternoon.

A run of NE windswell along the NSW coast this weekend is a precursor to a larger round of E swell early to mid next week. Photo: Uploaded to CW by ttbanfield.

A run of NE windswell along the NSW coast this weekend is a precursor to a larger round of E swell early to mid next week. Photo: Uploaded to CW by ttbanfield.

Queensland and Far Northern NSW
As the Northern Irish band D:Ream have been singing out loud for decades, things can only get better. While Thursday’s virtual absence of surfable swell continues on Friday, the outlook from Saturday onwards sees a steady improvement in our surf prospects as a rising trend in ESE swell gets underway. Initially this isn’t anticipated to amount to much beyond some junky waves hovering around the 2ft mark on Saturday morning – but it will bump up a notch into the afternoon and by Sunday morning it should be game on. A more substantial building trend should see both wave height and period gradually climbing as the day progresses, pushing set waves north of the 3ft mark during the afternoon. As discussed in the latest Forecaster Blog, it won’t be until Monday that we see the leading edge of a far more substantial ESE groundswell making landfall – and this undoubtedly presents good to excellent surf potential for the region throughout early to mid next week.

Friday
ESE windswell. Around 1ft+ exposed beaches, bumping up towards 1 – 2ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ENE 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday
ESE windswell. Sets around 2ft exposed beaches, bumping up marginally during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable inshore, tending E 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday
Rising ESE groundswell. Sets around 2 - 3ft+ exposed breaks early, building towards 3 - 4ft+ during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable inshore, tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Wave action is projected to start ramping up out of ESE during Sunday, leading in a large round of groundswell across the region early to mid next week. Photo: Penny Kempe.

Wave action is projected to start ramping up out of ESE during Sunday, leading in a large round of groundswell across the region early to mid next week. Photo: Penny Kempe.

Victoria
There’s no shortage of small, clean waves on tap across the most exposed Victorian coasts this weekend. Thursday’s fleeting rise in SSW windswell aside, we remain in the midst of a suppressed swell-pattern; one that also coincides with a predominant light offshore, N to NE wind-regime. For the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island, this probably only holds modest surf potential not exceeding a slow 2 to 3ft along exposed beaches both on Saturday and Sunday. Further afield, Victoria’s more remote southwest coast may well be offering up set waves up to double this size, making for two days featuring early clean conditions, giving way to seabreezes during the afternoons.

Friday
Combination of background SW swell and easing SSW windswell. Sets to 2 - 3ft+ along exposed beaches early, wrapping at 1 – 3ft along the Surf Coast, fading into the afternoon. WIND: early light E to NE tending ESE 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Saturday
Mid period SW swell reinforced by longer-period SW groundswell during the afternoon. Ranging from 2 – 3ft+ along the exposed beaches, grading to 1 - 2ft+ along the Surf Coast. WIND: Early light NW to NE  0 to 5 knots tending variable, then to seabreezes 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

Sunday
Long range SW groundswell. Sets up to a clean 2 - 3ft along the exposed beaches. Wrapping at 1 - 2ft along the Surf Coast. WIND: Calm to light N early, tending E 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon.

The most exposed south facing stretches of Victorian coast look like the pick this weekend. Photo: Andy Morris.

The most exposed south facing stretches of Victorian coast look like the pick this weekend. Photo: Andy Morris.

Western Australia
There’s some small windows of opportunity to get amongst some kinda clean, but kinda bumpy waves across the region this weekend. Friday sees fresh onshore NW winds rendering conditions largely blown-out across the entire coast all day. It won’t be until Saturday morning that lighter offshore winds will present an opportunity to get amongst some still lumpy, but light offshore 3 to 5ft waves across the Southwest. At this point there’s some uncertainty surrounding the potential arrival of a SW change during the day, so stay tuned to Dan’s update on Friday for clarification. Sunday should also offer up a similarly good window of early clean conditions before onshores develop during the afternoon. All in all, it looks well worth a couple of early surfs.

Friday
New SW groundswell shows under an onshore NW tending W’ly breeze. South West coast: Onshore wind affected, 3 to 5ft. Expect inconsistency early. Perth/Mandurah: 0.5 to 1ft, rising inconsistent sets. WIND: NW 10 to 15 knots shifting W’ly.

Saturday
SW groundswell overlapped by a mid period WSW swell. South West: 3 to 4ft, rising plus sets. Perth/Mandurah: 1 to 1.5ft. WIND: Variable to light ESE 5 to 10 knots tending S to SW and freshening 20 to 25kts.

Sunday
Swell bottoms out as winds potentially show light out of the west. South West: Bumpy, 2 to 3ft, rising late. Perth, Mandurah: Clean, 0.5 to 1ft. WIND:  Early light E inshore tending WSW at 10 to 15 knots. Light variable across Metro waters early.

There will be good early opportunities for some solid waves across the Southwest this weekend. Photo: Dan Wyer.

There will be good early opportunities for some solid waves across the Southwest this weekend. Photo: Dan Wyer.

South Australia
There isn’t too much to get pumped about across SA this weekend. Fresh onshore southerly quarter winds will add little appeal to conditions on Friday – and although they should drop-off by Saturday morning there will still be plenty of lump and bump in the mix. It looks like it won’t be until Sunday that a light offshore NE breeze transforms conditions – but this is projected to coincide with very low-levels of long-range SW groundswell arriving out of the far Southern Ocean. Still, this may well offer up some high quality 2 to 3ft sets across the most exposed, southwest facing stretches of coast, so a bit of time behind the wheel could reap rewards.

Friday
Poor wind swell on the South Coast, tiny on the Mid Coast. South Coast: Messy 2 to 3ft. Mid Coast: Clean, 0.5ft. WIND: SSE 5 to 10 knots freshening 15 to 20kts SSW.

Saturday
Inconsistent SW groundswell shows under improving winds. South Coast: Messy, 1 to 2ft, rising 3ft sets. Mid Coast: Clean, 0.5ft early, rising inconsistent 1ft later. WIND: Possible light east to ESE prior to an afternoon sea breeze.

Sunday
Minor SW swell eases as winds shift into the east. South Coast: Cross-shore, 1-2ft with 3ft sets at magnets, easing. Mid Coast: Clean, 0.5ft, possible 1ft sets early before easing. WIND: ENE at 10-15kts easing NE before an afternoon sea breeze

Sunday is shaping up as the pick for a small, high period SW swell under light NE winds. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Dkimber.

Sunday is shaping up as the pick for a small, high period SW swell under light NE winds. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Dkimber.


Tags: Weekend , Surf , Forecast , Ben , Macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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