Weekend Surf Forecast 27 - 29 September, 2019
Issued Thursday, 26 September 2019
When it comes to size, power and quality of surf, the West Coast stands head and shoulders above the rest of the country this weekend. The Southwest in particular stands to benefit from two, back to back SW groundswells, under favourable, light early morning offshore winds; producing the kind of conditions that are well worth chasing down. In comparison, everywhere else is looking a bit, well, ho-hum. Still, the NSW coast won’t exactly be a bad place to be, with a steady run of small to mid-sized southerly swell maintaining fun surfable options for days to come. Further north, that will be cold comfort for southern Queensland surfers as this modest southerly swell-regime wraps in at very low levels, with Friday looking like the pick as a longer period South groundswell moves in.
Across the Southern States, the onset of a long SW groundswell makes its presence felt all weekend, albeit under predominant west to SW winds that will invariably keep a lid on quality. That holds some fun potential across Victoria’s Surf Coast – otherwise you’ll be taking your chances for some larger, lumpier options along the exposed beaches.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
How do you like your south swell? Clean, with straight offshores and a full weekend house? Or perhaps under moderate onshores and a little less populated. You can take your pick over the next few days as a series of south-swells overlap to produce varying conditions. Friday and Sunday mornings are shaping up as the pick for wave-quality, with light offshore breezes opening up good conditions across the south facing stretches. Otherwise you can roll the dice for something a bit more lumpy and bumpy – and ideally a bit less-crowded on Saturday.
Easing Southerly swell under early light offshore winds. Inconsistent 2 to 3ft+ south facing beaches, more like 1 to 3ft elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Slowly fading in the afternoon. WIND: WNW to NW 5 to 10 knots, tending light North to NE in the arvo, scope for a weak Southerly change in the evening.
Southerly windswell picks up, rising from 1 to 2ft+ near-dawn, towards 2 to 3ft south facing beaches during the day and approaching peaks of 3 to 4ft in the arvo. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Southerly 10 to 20, easing and tending SSE to SE and fading in the afternoon.
Leftover Southerly swell rapidly fades. Slower sets ranging from 2 to 3ft+ south facing beaches, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and fading into the afternoon. WIND: Westerly, WNW to NW 5 to 10 knots, turning light North to NE ahead of a Southerly change 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
We’re now entering the early stages of what’s shaping up as a long-enduring south-swell regime; invariably favouring far northern NSW coasts for size and power. By and large, that should equate to good-sized sets ranging either size of 3ft across northern NSW magnets on Friday, before levelling off at lower levels on Saturday. That should lead in a renewed upswing in energy as a new, short-period south swell starts to pick up on Sunday. All this won’t translate into anything substantial north of the border, so it’s well worth making the most of Friday’s slightly larger, longer period energy, before it dwindles to pretty mediocre 1 to 2ft levels all weekend.
Mid-period Southerly swell under early offshore winds. Far northern NSW: Sets ranging from 2 to 4ft across south facing breaks, grading to 2 to 3ft elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Southern QLD: Inconsistent sets around 2ft+ at the exposed breaks, grading to 1 to 2ft elsewhere. WIND: Early NW, NNW 10 to 15 knots, tending Northerly and freshening to 15 to 25 knots during the day.
Fading Southerly swell under light winds. Far northern NSW: Slower sets ranging from 2 to 3ft across south facing breaks, smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure and fading into the afternoon. Southern QLD: Sets around 1 to 2ft at the exposed breaks, grading tiny elsewhere. WIND: NW to NNW 10 to 15 knots, tending Northerly, NE seabreezes 10 to 20 knots in the arvo, then easing later.
Potential for a minor build in South swell. Far northern NSW: Sets around 2ft+ across south facing breaks, bumping up to 2 to 3ft in the afternoon, smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Southern QLD: Sets around 1 to 2ft at the exposed breaks, grading tiny to near-flat elsewhere. WIND: Early SSW to Southerly , tending to SE, East then NE to NNE 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
A combination of small to mid-sized SW swell and predominant onshore winds probably won’t get the adrenalin flowing this weekend. Still, there are waves, exhibiting most size across the exposed coasts as a new SW groundswell builds in on Saturday and maintains good size throughout Sunday. If you have to pick, you might do well to aim for Sunday morning along the Great Ocean Road as a sizeable SW groundswell opens up solid, clean options under early offshore winds.
Potential for larger WSW groundswell under early westerly winds. Around 2 to 3ft along exposed beaches, picking up to 3 to 4ft in the afternoon. Wrapping at 1 to 2ft along the Surf Coast reefs and picking up a notch in the afternoon. WIND: NW, NNW 10 to 20 knots near-dawn, shifting WNW, then SW 15 to 30 knots during the early afternoon.
Rising, long-period SW groundswell. Inconsistent 3 to 4ft+ along exposed beaches, bumping up to 4 to 5ft+ during the afternoon. Wrapping at a clean 2 to occasional 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs, rising to 3 to 4ft. Otherwise smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light SW around 10 to 15 knots, tending to South, SSW seabreezes during the afternoon.
SW groundswell maintains peak size at around 4 to 6ft+ along exposed beaches, wrapping at clean 3 to 4ft+ along the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: Early light West to WNW, tending SW to SSW, 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
The Southwest is back on the pump over the next few days as two large, long-period SW groundswells go back-to-back. The first is on track to show peak size under light offshore winds on Friday morning, before gradually easing off again throughout Saturday. That should precede the onset of a renewed increase by first light on Sunday; kicking back up to similarly large 8ft+ levels across exposed breaks, while opening up a wide variety of large options across the region while light ENE winds remain in force throughout the early morning hours.
SW groundswell from 220 degrees slowly eases under light easterlies. Southwest: Clean 8 to 10ft sets along exposed coasts, setting to 6 to 8ft+ in the afternoon. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Perth: Around 2 to 3ft. WIND: Easterly, ESE 10 to 15 knots in the morning, tending ENE to light North, before shifting SW to SSW 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Easing SW groundswell reinforced by new SSW groundswell under early offshore winds. Southwest: Sets ranging from 5 to 6ft+ along exposed coasts, settling to 4 to 6ft during the morning and 3 to 5ft later. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Perth: Around 2ft+ exposed beaches, easing later. WIND: SE to SSE around 10 knots, tending Southerly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Reinforcing SSW groundswell from 220 degrees slowly eases under light offshore winds. Southwest: Clean 6 to 8ft+ across exposed coasts, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Perth: Around 2 to 3ft, easing later. WIND: Light Easterly, ENE around 10 to 15 knots, tending North to NW in the afternoon.
While onshore winds take the shine off conditions on Friday, it looks like conditions will come good just in time for the weekend. The arrival of a sizeable SW groundswell on Saturday morning opens up a great window of opportunity across exposed coasts under light NE winds. Although winds are set to revert to the south on Sunday morning, they’re looking light enough to keep the door open to some worthwhile conditions for most of the day.
Long period SW groundswell gradually builds. South Coast: Bumpy 2 to 3ft at Waits and Parsons, rising to a slow 3 to 4ft in the afternoon. Wrapping at 1 to 2ft around Middleton to Goolwa, bigger later. Mid Coast: Around 0.5ft. WIND: Westerly near-dawn, otherwise SW, SSW 10 to 15 knots, tending SSE in the arvo.
Large SW groundswell fills in. South Coast: Ranging from 4 to 6ft at Waits and Parsons, wrapping at about 2 to 4ft at Middleton to Goolwa,. Mid Coast: Around 1 to 2ft. WIND: NE to ENE 5 to 10 knots, tending SE to Southerly around 10 knots in the afternoon.
SW groundswell settles under light winds. South Coast: Sets up to 4 to 6ft around Waits and Parsons, easing later. Wrapping at 2 to 4ft from Middleton to Goolwa. Mid Coast: around 1ft. WIND: Early light SSW 5 to 10 knots, tending Southerly in the afternoon.
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