Weekend Surf Forecast 29 November - 1 December, 2019
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
To date, spring 2019 has delivered an abundance of good surf to the majority of Australian surfing regions – particularly across the NSW coast. The same, however, can't be said for this weekend. The harsh reality is we’re now entering an early summer pattern that, no matter where you look, isn’t offering up a whole lot in the way of good surf.
Across the Sydney, Newcastle and the southern NSW coast, it’s not going to go flat anytime soon. The arrival of back-to-back NE and Southerly windswells will dish up small, weak and consistent waves in the 2ft range – and that’s got to be a whole lot better than what’s on the menu further north.
Both southern Queensland and far northern NSW coasts will continue to languish under the influence of a localised northerly airflow blowing across a virtual absence of notable swell. Further south, the news isn’t a whole lot better. Victorian and South Australian coasts see plenty of SW swell on tap, albeit under predominantly onshore winds – and that means limited opportunities for good surf across both states all weekend. Last but not least, West Coast surfers will do a little better – at least across the Southwest of the state, where early offshore winds will open up small, clean conditions both on Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
There’s some fun little waves to be had over the next few days, but it’s fair to say the emphasis is on little. An increase in short-period NE windswell doesn’t look bad on-screen, but it will clearly be lacking in form and power given the relatively low wind-speeds driving the windswell. Still, it should be enough to generate consistent waves in the 2ft range and occasionally bigger across exposed beaches on Friday, with more size likely in the arvo. If you want more of the NE swell on Saturday morning you’ll want to be quick. The arrival of a weak southerly change coincides with a rapid dissolution of the northerly fetch off the NSW coast, translating into a swift decline in NE swell throughout the day. In its wake, there’s a new, similarly small, short period south swell slated to show up on Sunday morning; probably not exceeding a weak 2 to 3ft across southern exposures – but that’s still got to be better than nothing.
Renewed NE swell. Building across the exposed open beaches from around 2ft+ early, rising marginally towards a junky 2 to 3ft in the late afternoon/ evening. WIND: Northerly, NNE around 10 knots early, tending NE 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
NE windswell fades as south windswell picks up. NE waves around 2 to 3ft on exposed open beaches early, fading as a southerly shift sees bumpy 1 to 2ft+ waves developing across south facing beaches. WIND: Light NW to SW ahead of an early Southerly change 15 to 20 knots in the morning. Tending SSE to SE and easing in the afternoon.
Short period Southerly windswell ranges from a junky 2 to 3ft across south facing beaches, inconsistent in the upper range and grading to 1 to 2ft+ elsewhere. Fading in the afternoon. WIND: WSW to WNW 5 to 15 knots early, fading to lighter SE during the day, before tending NE and increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
Thursday’s robust pulse of south swell provided some much-needed relief from the current wave-drought that’s remained in effect across the region throughout November. Unfortunately it will be short lived. By Friday morning we’ll be looking at considerably smaller leftovers – perhaps still offering up some small, fun waves at the magnets offering some shelter from the prevailing northerlies. However, by Saturday morning we’re looking at a return to tiny, jumbled, short-period windswell; comprised of a mix of refracted NE and ESE wind-waves, offering up tiny, weak surf across the region all weekend.
SSE swell drops out as ENE windswell regains. Inconsistent sets around 2ft+ on south exposed beaches of north NSW early, otherwise tending 1 to 2ft elsewhere. WIND: Northerly, tending NNE 10 to 15 knots, freshening to 15 to 20 knots during the day.
Mix of slight NE windswell and tiny East swell under continued northerlies. Tending at around 1ft+ at the most exposed open beaches, tinier elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: NNW, tending Northerly 10 to 20 knots, tending NNE 15 to 25 knots in afternoon.
Short period NNE windswell under sideshore NW to Northerly windflow up to 1 to 2ft across exposed breaks, more like 1ft or less elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: NNW 10 to 15 knots tending Northerly 15 to 25 knots, stronger later.
It’s clearly not shaping up as a weekend worthy of clearing your schedule in the name of surf. A predominant onshore wind-regime will invariably take the shine off a small to mid-sized SW swell; favouring the exposed beaches for size and power, while still offering up smaller, but cleaner conditions across the Surf Coast. The only notable exception to the rule is on Sunday, at which time we should see straighter offshore winds greeting minimal levels of SW swell throughout the day.
Easing SW groundswell. Exposed Beaches: Ranging from 3 to 5ft, settling later. Surf Coast: Slower 2 to 4ft sets along the reefs, easing in the arvo. WIND: Variable SE to SSE around 10 knots early, tending SW to Southerly during the morning, then SSE 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
SW groundswell easing gradually. Exposed beaches holding up to 3 to 4ft, then easing in the afternoon. Surf Coast: Inconsistent 2 to 3ft on the reefs early, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Southerly around 10 to 15 knots early, tending SSW to SW 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Strong westerlies with new WSW swell on the rise. Exposed beaches see textured 2 to 3ft+ sets, rising into the 3 to 4ft+ range in the afternoon. Surf Coast: Inconsistent sets around 2ft along the reefs, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere under offshores. WIND: WNW to NW 10 to 20 knots, tending Westerly 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Consecutive days of small, windy conditions may not sate the surf-hungry across the region over the next few days, but there will be some fun options – particularly for the early rises. As a high pressure system builds in strength immediately south-west of the state over the next few days we can look forward to an early, offshore ESE bias in coastal winds, opening up clean 3ft conditions across the most exposed coasts both on Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Small-scale SW groundswell under strengthening winds. Southwest: Cross-shore winds push against inconsistent 2 to 3ft+ sets along exposed coasts. Lulls and grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Perth: Sets inconsistent at around 0.5ft+ exposed beaches, gusty winds. WIND: SE to SSE 15 to 25 knots, tending SE in the late afternoon.
Scope for a small uptick in SW swell under cross-offshore winds. Southwest: Semi-clean 2 to 4ft sets across exposed coast, infrequent in the upper range and grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. Perth: Up to 1ft exposed beaches. WIND: ESE 10 to 20 knots tending SSE 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Residual SW swell fades under cross-offshore winds. South West: residual 2ft+ sets across exposed breaks, battling against opposing wind direction. Perth/Mandurah: Around 0.5 to 1ft. WIND: ESE, Easterly 10 to 20 knots, tending light and variable before shifting South and freshening to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon.
Strong onshore winds and solid SW swell aren’t exactly a recipe for perfect South Australian surf this weekend. This impending onshore regime follows a strong ridge extending from a large high developing south-west of WA as a deep mid-latitude low develops south of the Bight; together fuelling a broad onshore SW flow across South Australia. That said, there are windows of early westerlies bound to open up some half-decent options across the South Coast – but by and large it looks like pretty slim pickings all weekend.
SW groundswell slowly eases. South Coast: Around 3 to 5ft at Waits and Parsons through the afternoon, wrapping at about 2 to 3ft across Middleton to Goolwa during the day. Mid Coast: Around 1ft. WIND: Early light WNW near-dawn tending SW 5 to 15 knots in the morning, then SSW 10 to 15 knots or more in the arvo.
SW groundswell eases under freshening onshore winds. South Coast: Sets 3 to 4ft around Waits and Parsons, easing in the afternoon. Wrapping up to 2 to 3ft from Middleton to Goolwa. Mid Coast: Around 0.5 to 1ft. WIND: WSW to SW 10 to 15 knots, rising 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Westerly windswell arising under heavy winds with SW swell building. South Coast: Stormy sets rising 3 to 4ft+ around Waits and Parsons, building through the afternoon. Wrapping at 2 to 3ft from Middleton to Goolwa and picking up in the afternoon. Mid Coast: Around 2ft. WIND: Westerly 15 to 25 knots, tending WSW to SW 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon.
Bring on autumn.
There's more late summer goodness in the forecast this weekend.
There's a wave with your name on it this weekend.
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