Indo Swell Forecast, Thurs, 28 July 2011

28 Jul 2011 0 Share



Indonesia: Bali to Java Forecast Issued 6.30pm, Thursday, 28 July, 2011. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast

Friday
SSW swell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks early, fading to 2 – 3ft+ into the afternoon. WIND: Early light winds tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Saturday
SSW swell 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Sunday:
SSW swell 2 – 3ft exposed coasts, smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light early tending ESE 15 – 25 knots.

Monday:
SW swell 2 – 4ft exposed breaks increasing to 4 – 6ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Tuesday
SW swell 5 - 6ft+ exposed breaks early, increasing to 6 – 10ft. WIND: Light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 25 knots.

Wednesday
SW swell 6 - 8ft exposed coasts. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 20 knots.

Forecast Overview
Thursday saw a new pulse of SSW groundswell building in across the region throughout the day: picking up from two to four feet early to a stronger three to four feet across exposed breaks during the afternoon. The swell emanates from an active southern Ocean storm track flaring up across our long range SW swell window as a couple of intense polar lows traversed beneath South Africa and Madagascar last Tuesday 19 and Wednesday 20 July.

SSW swell hangs in at low levels throughout the weekend
However, this episode won’t last long; hanging in at three to four feet into Friday morning before dropping out another notch during the day. SSW swell drops into the two to three foot range across exposed coasts by Saturday and wave heights should level off around this size into Sunday. The easing trend follows the storm track rapidly petered out as it traversed across the south-central Indian Ocean last Thursday and Friday.

Building trend in SSW groundswell early next week
Monday sees the arrival of a new, long period pulse of SSW groundswell filling in during Thursday 28 July. The origin is a large, intense extratropical low that intensified just off the Antarctic coast, sustaining a broad area of SW gales deep beneath South Africa from Wednesday 20 to Friday 22 July. Although the low gradually weakened out as it pushes eastward beneath the Mozambique Channel last weekend, the system endured long enough to send out a high energy pulse of long range SW groundswell our way. The leading edge of this energy makes landfall across the Archipelago late on Sunday ahead of the bulk of swell filling in during Monday 1 August. This should see wave heights increasing from three to four feet during the morning to a peak of four to six feet across exposed breaks into the afternoon.

Stronger pulse peaks later Tuesday/ early Wednesday
A stronger increase in SSW groundswell looms into the middle of next week. During Monday a complex area of low pressure began to coalesce into an intense frontal low. The system continued to deepen as it tracked out across the south-central Indian Ocean during Tuesday and Wednesday to set up a large area of SW gales across the southwest Indian Ocean on Thursday.

The low extends the fetch eastward as it tracks slowly beneath Kerguelen Island on Friday and Saturday, giving rise to a large pulse of SSW groundswell inbound across the region. This should see a further building trend in wave heights from six to eight feet across exposed reefs to a heavier eight to ten feet during Tuesday afternoon. Wave heights should hold around the six to eight foot mark on Wednesday morning before gradually subsiding from there: easing to four to six feet by Thursday.

As the low propagates further eastward through Friday and the weekend it sustains a broad area of WSW gales across the south-eastern Indian Ocean. This extends the longevity of this episode; setting up a gradual easing trend into Friday 5. Wave heights are likely to level off around three to four feet into Saturday 6 ahead of renewed building trend in SW groundswell getting underway into Sunday 7 August.

New SW groundswell arrives Sunday 7 and Monday 8 August
The new swell arises from a deepening extratropical low developing beneath South Africa this weekend. The low is projected to gather momentum as it tracks eastward early next week, steadily intensifying as it crosses Kerguelen Island during Monday and Tuesday. The low further intensifies over the south-eastern Indian Ocean between Wednesday 3 and Friday 5 August.

Initially the system is forecast to generate an extensive, gale force WSW fetch across south-central Indian Ocean through it’s developing phase, followed by more favourably aligned, SSW gales as it tracks eastward through the second half of next week.

Although still speculative, these projections lean towards an extended run of large surf across the Archipelago. This would commence with a building trend in SW groundswell across the region during Sunday 7, followed by large SSW swell fluctuating between four and eight feet between Monday 8 and Friday 12 August.

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