Indo Swell Forecast, Thurs, 1 September 2011

1 Sep 2011 0 Share



Indonesia: Bali to Java Forecast Issued 4.30pm, Thursday, 1 September, 2011. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast

Friday
SSW swell 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks. WIND: Early light winds tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Saturday
SSW swell 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Sunday:
SSW swell 2 – 4ft exposed coasts, increasing to 3 – 5ft during the afternoon. WIND: Light early tending ESE 15 – 25 knots.

Monday:
SSW groundswell 5 – 6ft+ exposed breaks. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Tuesday
SSW groundswell 4 - 6ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. WIND: Light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 25 knots.

Wednesday
SSW swell 5 - 6ft+ exposed coasts. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 20 knots.

Forecast Overview
A mid range pulse of SSW groundswell came in at about four to five feet across the more exposed breaks on Tuesday before winding back to three to four feet on Wednesday. The immediate outlook sees the tail end of this episode levelling off around two to four feet across the region from Thursday through to Saturday ahead of a new SSW groundswell building in on Sunday.

Solid SSW groundswell builds Sunday, peaks Monday
The source of the new swell is a large, complex area of low pressure that set up beneath South Africa last Thursday. The low steadily intensified and remained virtually stationary over the region until Saturday. The low sustained a broad area of WSW gales spanning a vast stretch of the Southern Ocean beneath South Africa before gradually migrating out across the south-western Indian Ocean and weakening into Sunday and Monday;

BOM
Source BOM. A deep low travering the southwest Indian Ocean sets up a consistent run of SSW groundswell over the course of next week.

However, the influence of the low didn’t end there. The storm re-intensified as it moved across the south-central Indian Ocean on Tuesday and Wednesday before weakening again on Thursday.

The end result is consecutive pulses of SSW groundswell – the first building from 210 to 215 degrees during Sunday and peaking on Monday at a solid five to six feet plus across exposed reefs. This holds at a good four to six feet on Tuesday ahead of a second push in SSW groundswell, increasing to five to six feet or so on Wednesday 7 September.

An active Southern Ocean storm track affecting Indonesia’s swell window sees a continued run of long range SW and SSW groundswell affecting the region into the middle of September. A polar low intensifying beneath Madagascar on Wednesday 31 August through Thursday 1 September maintains a broad area of WSW gales across polar latitudes as it migrates eastward on Friday.

A subsequent pulse of straighter S groundswell arriving from about 200 degrees follows late next week; the leading edge of this energy overlapping with Wednesday the 7th’s second peak in SSW groundswell. The bulk of this energy should arrive on Thursday the 8th, sustaining strong four to six foot surf across the most exposed breaks throughout the day.

Large SW groundswell from Saturday 10th to Tuesday 13th September
Beyond that a large SW swell looms; its origin a vigorous low that’s set to intensify within close range of the southern South African coast on Friday. The low aims a strong gale to storm force fetch our way as it slips away to the southeast, beneath Madagascar this weekend. The storm continues to evolve, merging with a second frontal system traversing the region as it retrogrades along the Antarctic coast during Sunday and Monday.

This is shaping up as one of the more significant storm systems of the winter: The complex low is projected to maintain a vast area of SW gales beneath Madagascar on Monday before gradually weakening through Tuesday and Wednesday. The leading edge of the resulting SW groundswell should begin to make landfall during Saturday 10th September ahead of the bulk of energy arriving through Sunday 11 and Monday 12.

Beyond that, storm activity affecting the Indian Ocean is likely to subside in the wake of this system, leading to an easing trend in wave heights from Tuesday 13 through to the middle of September. This will be reviewed again next week.


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