Indo Swell Forecast

21 Jul 2011 0 Share



Indonesia: Bali to Java Forecast Issued 5.30pm, Thursday, 21 July, 2011. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast

Friday
SSW swell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light winds tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Saturday
SSW groundswell 4 – 6ft increasing to 5 – 8ft exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Sunday:
SSW swell 4 – 6ft exposed coasts, easing during the day. WIND: Light early tending ESE 15 – 25 knots.

Monday:
SW swell 4 – 6ft exposed breaks. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Tuesday
SW swell 3 - 4ft+ exposed breaks. WIND: Light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 25 knots.

Wednesday
SW swell 2 - 3ft+ exposed coasts. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 20 knots.

Forecast Overview
The immediate outlook sees a building trend in SSW groundswell across the Archipelago, culminating in strong SSW groundswell ranging from five to eight feet across exposed breaks this weekend. The new swell arises from an active storm track affecting the far Southern Ocean between last Wednesday 13 and Monday 18 July; an extensive westerly flow spanning polar latitudes, with a series of embedded fronts tracing the storm track deep beneath South Africa and Madagascar.

This activity came to a head as a large low pressure complex hovered over the far southern Indian Ocean last weekend, generating a broad area of WSW gales across Indonesia’s swell window. The leading edge of a first pulse of long range SSW groundswell begins to fill in throughout Friday, initially maintaining mid range surf in the three to four foot range across exposed coasts.

The bulk of this energy fills in during Saturday, pushing wave heights up from four to six feet early to a stronger five to eight feet across exposed coasts into the afternoon. The longevity of the active storm track should see solid, mid to large SSW groundswell hanging in at a good size throughout Sunday; around four to six feet across exposed breaks.

A second pulse of SSW groundswell following close behind should see wave heights ticking back up a foot Monday 25 July; around five to six feet across the most exposed coasts early, gradually easing throughout the day.

Generally speaking, this marks the final day of substantial groundswell emanating from the aforementioned storm activity ahead of a sustained easing trend setting in through the remainder of the week. This should see smaller three to four foot plus surf early on Tuesday fading to two to three feet by Wednesday 27 July.

The absence of any notable new groundswell follows a steady weakening of the storm track as it propagated across the south-eastern Indian Ocean during Wednesday 20 and Thursday 21 July. One final polar low tracking the storm track beneath Madagascar on Tuesday and Wednesday sees a low to mid range pulse of SSW groundswell filling in during Thursday 28 July, speculatively pushing wave heights up to three to four feet across exposed coasts.

Beyond that, the only other notable swell source affecting our swell window is a large, intense extratropical low that intensified beneath South Africa on Wednesday and Thursday. Although the low gradually weakens out as it pushes eastward beneath the Mozambique Channel on Friday and Saturday, the system was strong enough to send out a high energy pulse of long range SW groundswell this week.

The leading edge of the resulting groundswell should begin to make landfall across the Archipelago around Sunday 31 July and Monday 1 August; speculatively pushing wave heights up to three to five feet across the most exposed breaks.

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